GEOFF BENNETT: Members of Congress leave Washington for a monthlong recess with no deal on President Trump's nominees.

That's as Texas Democrats risk arrest as they flee the state to block GOP-led redistricting.

Time now for Politics Monday with Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Jasmine Wright, White House correspondent for NOTUS.

Tamara Keith is away this evening.

It's always great to see you both.

So let's begin with President Trump firing the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after that week jobs report.

Jasmine, this is another scenario where the White House is working to create an environment that retroactively justifies what President Trump has already done.

What are you hearing from your White House sources?

And how is that justification landing with some Republicans on the Hill?

JASMINE WRIGHT, NOTUS: Yes, well, the White House is really sticking to this idea that firing the BLS head was because of all of these mistakes that they say the BLS made under her leadership, basically.

Right after the firing happened, the White House put out kind of this one sheet looking at all of the amount of revisions that have happened under her leadership, looking -- highlighting the number of them, basically trying to support their narrative that this is not because of a bad jobs support, but this is because of what they called incompetency.

And some Republicans are certainly buying it.

Obviously, this is within the president's threshold to do this.

Others are not.

We talked to Thom Tillis at NOTUS, and he basically made the case that if there was some evidence that showed that these numbers were manipulated, as the president said, then, yes, this person should be fired.

But if this was just a firing because they did not like the job numbers, he said -- quote - - "They need to grow up -- or "Time to grow up."

And so I think that there is some mix.

But I think specifically we're seeing Republicans kind of go along with what the president wants to do, which we have seen the last six weeks, really giving him the latitude to decide who is within his administration.

And I think you're seeing that play out again.

GEOFF BENNETT: And, Amy, as we heard from Mr. Beach there, the former BLS commissioner, there's a risk here, because you risk that this whole thing could backfire by eroding the trust of investors, companies, and organizations that rely on firewalled economic data.

And if anyone has a question about that, look no further than countries like Argentina or Greece that have already been through this sort of thing.

AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: That's absolutely right.

I mean, we're already living through an era of declining trust in almost every major institution.

And what President Trump is doing here is just throwing more fuel onto that distrust level.

I think there's something else really important, though, when it comes to the politics of it all.

For voters, and we asked this question in our own poll in the 2024 cycle where we said, how do you -- as an American, how do you judge the strength, the health of the economy?

And, overwhelmingly, folks chose how much stuff costs, basically, the cost of living more important as an indicator of whether the economy is healthier or not, more so than the unemployment rate or the GDP rate or whatever other sort of official statistic is coming out.

And we're seeing that in other forms of data as well, Americans still feeling pretty anxious about inflation, still feeling frustrated about how much stuff costs, giving Donald Trump some of his lowest ratings ever between his first term and now on his handling of the economy.

So, whatever the BLS numbers, the GDP numbers, again, throw at any other number, the Fed, whatever they say, it is very important to the sanctity of financial institutions being able to trust what is coming out from the federal government.

But when it comes to Americans and voters, they're also looking inward.

They're looking at what stuff costs in their own lives to judge whether the economy is as hot as the president says it is right now.

GEOFF BENNETT: Based on your reporting, Jasmine, is the White House factoring in any of that as they consider a replacement for Ms. McEntarfer?

JASMINE WRIGHT: Yes, I think that they're factoring it all in, primarily because they want to make sure that their narrative is getting to the American voters.

Now, I don't think that the BLS head is something that Americans are talking about all the time, but the economy is something that this White House is talking about all the time.

Donald Trump often opens his remarks talking about how hot the country is, talking about how he feels prices are lower, even if the American voters don't necessarily feel that.

And so they want to make sure that people are feeling secure about what they're doing.

And I think that that's potentially the type of person that you're going to see them put forward.

But, of course, we know that this Republican Congress is going to give Donald Trump the leeway to have in his Cabinet or have in his administration who he wants, basically.

GEOFF BENNETT: You set up my next topic perfectly, because we're talking about Congress, with Texas Democrats fleeing to Chicago and New York in hopes of blocking this Republican effort to redraw political maps.

Amy, can you break down the math?

I know you can.

I'm not even sure why I'm asking if you can.

I know you can.

So, how dramatically would a five-seat swing out of Texas, how would that change the map and what would have to happen in places like New York, Illinois, California, which I'm not even sure if that state constitution allows them to do what Newsom says they want to do, what would Democrats have to do to make up for Texas redistricting?

AMY WALTER: No, you're exactly right.

That is a big shift.

I mean, right now, Democrats, they only need to net four seats to flip control to Democrats in this upcoming midterm election.

You add another five onto that from Texas, and Ohio is also redistricting -- doesn't get as much attention as Texas, but they could get as many as two seats out of their mid-decade redistricting, which would add another seven really problematic seats for Democrats, maybe making as many as 10 or 11 seats that Democrats would need to net in order to get a majority.

So that's a very, very big deal.

In the last midterm election, Republicans narrowly carried that election, won control of Congress, but they netted just nine seats.

So you can see, in this era of declining margins, even nine or 10 seats, it becomes really, really, really challenging.

And I'm watching California very closely.

You're exactly right, Geoff.

I mean, this is a place where Democrats could make up some of those losses, four or five seats, maybe more, depending on how aggressive they want to get.

But it is like most likely seems to go in front of voters.

And that's another real challenge here for Democrats.

Not only do they have to get it on the ballot in time, but they have got to convince voters who believe in this independent redistricting, who like independent redistricting, that going to partisan redistricting is worth it in order to fight back against President Trump.

Obviously, this is a very blue state, but it is going to be our first test of just how much blue voters want to fight fire with fire, as many blue legislators are saying they would like to be able to do.

GEOFF BENNETT: Yes, and for Governors Hochul, Pritzker, Newsom, for the Texas Democrats who have retreated to those respective states, New York, Illinois, and California, it's important for them to be seen fighting among the base.

JASMINE WRIGHT: Yes, I mean, I think that they are basically answering this call from Democrats that I'm sure that Amy has seen in her polling of them being upset with Democratic Party at large because they are not fighting enough.

They're not doing enough to stymie Donald Trump's agenda.

Now, I think the reality is that Democrats can't do much in Congress, but they can at least do messaging bills.

They can do these things where it looks like they're fighting back.

And so this is giving Democrats one of their moments.

I think, if you look at the last six months, it was kind of questionable about what Democrats have been doing.

But if you look at the last four weeks, not only were they basically unified on fighting against Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill, no Democrat voted for it, then they were also unified and drilling down that it was a Medicare problem using that messaging to really kind of tank the support of that bill.

And now they're sticking together on this redistricting fight a bit.

I think you're seeing some infighting.

I'm looking at Cory Booker in the Senate talking about his colleagues.

But certainly I think you're seeing these Democrats try to come together and answer that call from their party.

The question is whether or not it will be enough and whether or not it gets too close to the midterms.

GEOFF BENNETT: Amy Walter, Jasmine Wright.

Jasmine, it's always great to have you here.

JASMINE WRIGHT: Thank you.